Amid the reshaping of the global economic landscape, ongoing trade wars and intensifying geopolitical competition, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) convened the Central Conference on Work Related to Foreign Affairs with Neighbouring Countries on 8-9 April, once again elevating the significance of relations with neighbouring countries. China's surrounding regions can be broadly categorised into four areas: Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. Each region holds substantial economic and trade potential for China, while presenting certain security and hotspot challenges to China. Emphasising the principle of “building friendships and partnerships with neighbours” China must enhance public diplomacy and manage sensitive issues carefully, and at the same time maintain regional stability through pragmatic and flexible diplomatic strategies. Only through these efforts can China effectively seize the initiative amid “profound changes unseen in a century” and address increasingly severe external challenges.

Southeast Asia: Significant Cooperation Potential, But Crisis Management Mechanisms Must Be Strengthened

Neighbouring countries currently occupy a central place in China’s overall diplomatic strategy, with Southeast Asia as the top priority. Following the official entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), economic and trade ties between China and ASEAN countries have deepened significantly. ASEAN has now been China’s largest trading partner for four consecutive years. These robust economic relationships provide China with a strong foundation to expand its influence across Southeast Asia.

Shortly after the Central Conference, President Xi Jinping embarked on his first regional tour, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. This highlights Southeast Asia’s primary position in China's peripheral diplomacy. These three countries have rapidly improved relations with China in recent years and are severely impacted by U.S. President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Southeast Asia holds critical importance for China’s exports and outward investments, with Vietnam and Malaysia representing China’s two largest export markets in the region. The personal involvement of President Xi in peripheral diplomacy underscores the importance China attached to deepening economic and political relations with Southeast Asian nations.

Southeast Asia is also an important region for the steady advancement of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Infrastructure projects, such as the China-Laos Railway, Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway, have significantly enhanced regional connectivity, thus laying a solid groundwork for further economic development in the region.

However, most Southeast Asian countries also maintain strong diplomatic relationships and economic ties with the U.S. and other Western nations. Amid intensifying strategic competition between China and the U.S., ASEAN countries generally adopt a policy of non-alignment, seeking strategic flexibility. In security matters, the Philippines and Thailand are formal allies of the U.S., while other countries rely heavily on the West for military cooperation and arms. Should Trump intensify the Indo-Pacific Strategy during his second term, regional dynamics could grow increasingly complex, potentially affecting China’s political influence. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations between China and ASEAN on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC), territorial disputes periodically escalate, posing significant risks to China’s relations with Southeast Asian countries, particularly with the Philippines and Vietnam. Thus, shaping a regional consensus on issues related to the COC with ASEAN is essential to create institutional and legal frameworks for crisis management and peaceful dispute resolution.

Northeast Asia: Cooperation and Challenges in a Strategically Sensitive Region

At the conclusion of 11th China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting on 22 March 2025 in Tokyo, the three nations announced the resumption of long-stalled free trade agreement negotiations. If finalised, China, Japan, and South Korea would form an economic bloc with a combined GDP exceeding 25 trillion USD—about one-fifth of global GDP—potentially surpassing the European Union in influence. Under the shadow of trade wars, these Northeast Asian nations held their first economic dialogue in five years on 30 March 2025, agreeing to promote "comprehensive and high-level" cooperation and actively advance trilateral free trade negotiations to foster regional and global trade growth. Accelerated economic integration among these three countries presents significant new opportunities.

Nevertheless, Northeast Asia faces considerable challenges. Historical issues, territorial disputes, and persistent strategic distrust continue to complicate relationships in the region. The strengthening of U.S. military alliances with Japan and South Korea adds further complexity, presenting fresh challenges to China’s Northeast Asian strategy.

South Asia: A Subcontinent of Opportunities and Uncertainties

India, a major Indian Ocean country, is a superpower within developing South Asian region. India is also an influential international actor and a rapidly growing major economy. As a populous parliamentary democracy, India shares certain political values with developed nations, but there exist significant differences between them. Notably, India and China share similar perspectives regarding development models and climate change issues. China and India have recently reached a partial consensus on border disputes, and India aims to further enhance economic ties with China and attract more industrial production capacity to relocate from China to India. If both countries could effectively manage border tensions, enormous cooperation potential exists in trade, investment, and climate change areas.

China’s relationships with Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and other South Asian countries are also progressing steadily. These nations aim to boost economic growth and infrastructure development through cooperation with China. Through partnerships in port and energy projects in South and Southeast Asia, China is gradually expanding its influence into the Indian Ocean, thus helping to alleviate the pressure on China’s traditional geopolitical bottlenecks.

Central Asia: A Vital Passage Along the Silk Road Economic Belt

As a crucial passage for the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt, Central Asian countries have built stable cooperation frameworks with China in energy, infrastructure, and trade. Additionally, through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), member states have institutionalised cooperation in security cooperation, cultural exchanges and economic development, significantly enhancing China’s political, economic, and security influence in Central Asia.

Energy cooperation is a highlight of China-Central Asia relations. Major energy infrastructure projects, including the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline, have infused fresh vitality into regional economic development in Central Asia. China continues to actively promote interconnected networks with Central Asian countries, covering railways, roads, aviation, telecommunications, power grids, and energy pipelines, further solidifying the foundation for economic cooperation.

However, geopolitical competition between the world’s great powers profoundly affects the Central Asian region. The U.S. seeks to re-engage Central Asia, aiming to diminish the influence of China and Russia, while the EU and Japan have also increased their presence, intensifying geopolitical rivalry. Security conditions remain complicated in Central Asia, with persistent extremism and terrorism threats. In addition, Afghanistan’s instability creates spillover effects that increase security risks for Chinese investments and personnel. Some Central Asian nations have expressed concerns about excessive reliance on Chinese investment and demanded greater transparency and sustainable debt management from China.  

Conclusion

Overall, China faces both opportunities and challenges across Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. Geographic proximity, cultural diversity, historical complexity and conflicting national interests add to the intricate nature of China’s peripheral diplomacy. China should continue to accurately assess the situation, uphold the peripheral diplomacy principles of "amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusivity", deepen political trust with neighbouring countries, respect their core interests, and prudently manage differences. Only by doing so can China elevate its peripheral diplomacy to new heights.

By Dr Chen Gang -
Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.